![]() This statement can be misleading due to the life expectancy measure used by the CDC. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has published provisional life expectancy estimates stating that the average life expectancy of Americans decreased by a year and a half during 2020 primarily due to COVID-19. A pandemic or other significant event that has a substantial effect on short-term population mortality but is expected to subside will have a much smaller effect on cohort life expectancy than it does on period life expectancy. The CDC report highlights period life expectancy at birth-the number of years that a newborn would be expected to live if the current pandemic conditions persist throughout the newborn’s entire lifetime.Ĭohort life expectancy (also known as “generation” life expectancy) considers changes in rates of mortality that are expected to occur in the future. This often-cited measure of life expectancy can vary dramatically from one year to the next. When mortality rates increase significantly during a given year-as has been the case during the COVID-19 pandemic-period life expectancy will decline noticeably because it is calculated as if these higher rates of mortality will continue in all future years. Period life expectancy, measured as of a given age, is the remaining number of years that a hypothetical individual can expect to live (on average) if rates of death prevailing during a given period continue indefinitely. As discussed below, this focus on period life expectancy can create confusion. ![]() While the CDC report does distinguish this measure from the “cohort” life expectancy measure that aligns with the more intuitive understanding of the metric, described below, the CDC’s focus is on changes in period life expectancy that were largely driven by the increase in deaths attributable to COVID-19. The CDC focuses on a hypothetical measure known as “period” life expectancy. It is important to fully understand these measures to interpret the CDC analysis of the data for 2020. The notion of life expectancy can be confusing because there are different measures of life expectancy that are used in different contexts. While these changes in life expectancy might seem dramatic, it can be difficult to interpret what this data means. This decrease in life expectancy follows several years of smaller life expectancy declines (on average), which have run counter to the long-term trend of increases in longevity. A reduction of roughly three years in life expectancy was cited for Black and Hispanic Americans. The CDC report, which is based on deaths during 2020, garnered widespread attention that Americans had lost a year and a half of life expectancy due to the pandemic. 2 This development understandably raises concerns because it creates an impression that the average American will live a year and a half less than they otherwise would have due to COVID-19.īut what is “life expectancy”-and does the CDC’s statement really mean what many people think it means? ![]() The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”) has published provisional life expectancy estimates in its Vital Statistics Surveillance Report 1 that the average life expectancy of Americans decreased by a year and a half during 2020, primarily due to the impact of COVID-19. Interpreting Pandemic-Related Decreases in Life Expectancy
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